How this Democratic Congresswoman-elect outran Kamala Harris by 9 points

Kristen McDonald Rivet is a Common Sense Democrat on a mission

I first met Kristen McDonald Rivet early this year at a New Democrats event in Washington, DC. I was wearing a name tag with the name of our associated PAC, Common Sense Democrats. When I introduced myself, she looked at my name tag and declared, “That’s me!” We instantly bonded over the need for Democrats to connect with voters on pocketbook issues and candid common sense.

Later that evening I listened to her speak on a panel about how to better connect with Trump voters. Her tone and approach was markedly different from anyone else that evening. Rather than dismissing or judging them, she talked about the legitimacy of their frustrations and the need for Democrats to better address them. In election post-mortems, this has become a common talking point, but at the time it was notably different. All this made it an easy choice for us to endorse and support her campaign.

On election day, she won her hotly contested Michigan district. Kristen won a Trump+2 district by 7%, out-performing VP Harris by 9%, making her win the biggest over-performance in the country for a non-incumbent House candidate.

I wanted to learn more about the strategy behind such a resounding victory, so I recently chatted with her campaign manager and incoming chief-of-staff, Shane Wolfe, who shared some behind-the-scenes insights into their campaign strategy.

He did not reveal a ground-breaking political or economic theory. Instead, he laid out a simple, straightforward, and repeatable strategy for winning. Democrats should take note.

The following is my summary of the key points from our discussion:

Focus on the Right Things

The first thing Shane told me was, “We broke a partisan frame,” meaning, they did not opt in to the standard Democrat vs Republican talking points. They refused to make democracy preservation, climate change, or defeating MAGA extremism their top focus. Instead, they hammered pocketbook issues relentlessly, especially lowering costs.

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Kristen summarized her top priority: “[We] need to help people earn more money and keep more of their money, especially working-class people who are making less than 60 grand a year.”

They made the election a referendum about which of the two candidates was more likely to actually deliver on those pocketbook issues - rather than asking voters to endorse the broader Democratic brand. They framed Kristen as a relatable, common sense Democrat and her opponent as a wealthy California trust-funder who “doesn’t get us.”

Most importantly, they stayed focused on the most salient issues to voters in her district: lower costs, more jobs, working class tax cuts, and effective law enforcement.

Deliver on the Right Things

Focusing on issues that voters care most about is important (and, for whatever reason, challenging for Democrats) but actually delivering on those things is even harder. Shane on Kristen’s consistent track record:

“She had a track record of actually delivering. She spearheaded the largest tax cut for working families in Michigan's history. That is a fact and people knew that…She genuinely wants to fund our law enforcement because she wants to keep communities safe…On the state budget she delivered hundreds of millions of dollars to law enforcement that increased hiring, retention, training, facilities, equipment. She funded those things. And then people could look credibly, and [they] saw she has done this before and she’ll do it again.”

“She was the small business legislator of the year in 2023 in Michigan. Chambers of commerce felt comfortable with her and they know that she has run major nonprofits and knows the challenges of balancing a budget and will genuinely fight burdensome regulation when it doesn’t make sense and support our business communities.”

Not only did Kristen say the right things, but she backed them up with an aligned track record. That consistent combination built credibility with voters.

In contrast, Vice President Harris had a mismatch between her words and actions. By my estimation, her campaign generally focused on the right things - economic opportunity, domestic energy production, a tougher stance on the border - and avoided pitfalls like identity politics. However, her talking points were undermined by her own track record. She declined to take an aggressive stance to border enforcement over the last few years in her role as Vice President despite record high border encounters. She also had a track record from her presidential run in 2020 that undermined her new talking points in 2024. Convincing voters that you are committed to common sense is much easier if you have actually been committed to it all along.

Aggressive, authentic communication

Kristen managed to build trust around those talking points, not only with her track record, but also with an aggressive and authentic communications strategy. Shane again:

“Kristen was speaking to camera constantly. We were up on TV in June and we were dual tracking (running two ads on air at once) from September through election day ...From Labor Day through the election anytime someone was watching their television they would see at least one of our two ads with Kristen speaking directly to camera. She is telling you what she is going to do.”

You can see one of these ads here. It is worth a watch. She exudes no-bullshit authenticity, blending legitimate accomplishments (running Michigan Head Start and passing the largest tax cut in Michigan history) with light-hearted commentary (“I root for the Lions, I hate Ohio, and I think most politicians are full of sh*t.”)

Takeaways

The McDonald Rivet campaign shows that authentic Democratic candidates who stay focused on pocketbook issues can win big. She eschewed many of the counter-productive, but popular Democratic talking points about race, gender, and victimization, and, instead, built trust with voters focusing on practical issues like growing wages, reducing costs, and stopping crime. That track record set her up for success this last November, and then the campaign delivered the win with an aligned, focused, and authentic messaging strategy. The result was a nine percentage point over-performance compared to Vice President Harris. If other Democrats want to see similar results, they should consider a similar strategy.